★ Birthday effect
Effect birthday is a statistical phenomenon where people appear to the probability of death to increase or close to their birthday. The effect of the day of birth was observed in studies of the population in England and Wales, Switzerland, Ukraine and the United States, and also in small groups such as major League baseball players. Studies do not always show this effect, Some studies show that male and female mortality differ in the eve of the Day of birth, while others find no significant gender effect. The proposed mechanisms of the effects include alcohol consumption, psychological stress relating to the birth, increased risk of suicide, terminally ill patients, trying to hold on to their birth, increased mortality, or physiological cycle, which causes the body to weaken every year. It was also suggested that this may be a statistical artifact, perhaps as a result of anomalies in reporting, but by virtue of birth, as well as studies, monitoring of known anomalies reporting.
1. Research. (Исследования)
With the introduction of statistical software that can easily handle large datasets, a number of state or national studies have been conducted to explore whether birthdays, effect on mortality. The first large-scale study used records of 2.745.149 Californians who died in the period between 1969 and 1990. After correction of confounding factors such as seasonality in mortality rates, elective surgery, and people born on February 29, there was a significant increase in deaths in the week before the physical, for a birthday for men, and for weeks after the birth for women in both cases, the mortality rate did not peak on the day of birth, but close to it. This effect was consistent regardless of age and race cohorts.
A similar study among 12.275.033 Switzerland found the highest mortality on the day of birth is 17% more than the expected value, and the effect was greatest for those over 80, another study according to the Swiss found 13.8% surplus and was able to relate it to specific causes: heart attack and stroke is prevalent in women and suicides and accidents are more prevalent in men, and increase cancer deaths. Among the 25 million Americans who died between 1998 and 2011, 6.7 per cent more people than expected die on your birthday, and this effect was most pronounced at the weekend and among young people – including 20 to 29 years, was exceeded by more than 25%. An even greater excess was found in the population of Kiev, where between 1990 and 2000 was 44.4% more deaths than expected among men on the day of birth and 36.2% higher than expected among women. A small biographical studies have also shown the effect of the day of birth in subgroups of the population, such as among major League Baseball MLB players and people with entries in the Encyclopedia of American history.
Focusing on only one death, a suicide, a large study has found evidence of a peak of suicides or just after my birthday in Denmark and Hungary, and not in Bavaria or Taiwan.
However, other studies have not found such a correlation. Study using the population of Denmark and Austria, a total of 2.052.680 deaths over a period of time found that, although peoples life span is usually correlated with month of birth, there was no consistent effect of birth, and people born in autumn or winter, were more likely to die within months of birth. A study of all cancer deaths in Germany from 1995 to 2009 found no evidence of effect on the day of birth, although it to find the appropriate Christmas effect. A little research Leonard Zusne found birthday effects among the male and female groups where women were more likely to die immediately after birth, and men are more likely to die right after, but that when averaged together Not the day of birth effect among the population as a whole. The same was found for the study of mortality data in England and Wales, where there was a statistically significant effect on the birthday of each sub-group, but he was not seen in the General population.
2.1. Possible explanations. External causes. (Внешние причины)
The birthday celebration is often associated with a significant increase in alcohol consumption. Drinking can increase individuals risk of death due to alcohol poisoning, car accidents and drunk driving and the exacerbation of existing conditions and increasing the risk of suicide. In the US, where drinking age is 21, there is a very high mortality excess at the 21st birthday and the day after, almost entirely attributable to an increase in accidents.
2.2. Possible explanations. Psychosomatic and psychological. (Психосоматические и психологические)
Two mutually contradictory explanations have been put forward that rely on psychosomatic effects. On the one hand, a birthday gives a fixed date to focus on allowing the terminally ill to hold out until the day. On the other hand, birthday, also reminds the individual of death and offers an occasion to look back on life. In accordance with the theory of terror management, it causes stress that can hasten death. The uneven distribution of mortality between men and women and between more and less successful players in baseball, suggests that both may play a role in the birthday effect: people who have focused on the public sphere, for example, career-driven people or professional athletes can be reminded that their glory days are over, and those who lived in the private sphere, such as stay-at-home parents and Amateur sports players are increasingly aware that they lose to death and trying to hold on. This is the "broken promise effect" in which a person suffering from suicidal tendencies will have to wait for a birthday or other significant event, to see whether their circumstances will improve.
Psychosomatic / psychological model will also explain this increase in cancer deaths around holidays, such as Christmas, and this is confirmed by the fact that these seem to depend on culture – there is a Passover effect among the Jewish community, which is moving from the festival, and the Mid-autumn festival effect among the Chinese.
2.3. Possible explanations. Physiological. (Физиологические)
It has been suggested that, as a 24-hour circadian rhythm, the body also has an annual "levels" of biological rhythm. Vaiserman et al. suggested that climatic conditions at birth to act as a zeitgeber that causes the internal stresses and increases the likelihood of death.
2.4. Possible explanations. Statistics. (Статистика)
Perhaps when you make a death certificate to confuse the date of birth and date of death field, which would increase the apparent number of certificates in which they coincide. In addition, if exact date is not known, the 1st and 15th day of the month are often used as placeholders. This will lead to an excess of births and deaths recorded on these dates. However, studies also find changes in mortality in the days immediately before and after that are unlikely to be anomalies caused by data processing, which suggests that some statistical artifacts cannot explain the effect of the day of birth.
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